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Philippines Probabilistic Risk Results Average Annual Loss by Hazard

Philippines Probabilistic Risk Results Average Annual Loss by Hazard

UNISDR is supporting countries to develop disaster loss databases. The need for systematic data for disaster mitigation and prevention is an increasing concern of both development and response agencies. In the past, data needs were addressed on an ad hoc basis, which included collecting the information at the time of the emergency. However, there is a growing importance and understanding that data collection, analysis, and management can help both short and long-term development goals and help to identify and address disaster risks.


Probabilistic Risk

Probabilistic risk assessment uses mathematical models to combine any possible future hazard scenarios, information about the exposed assets and the vulnerability, to provide results of an estimate of probable loss levels in a region of interest. Unlike historical estimates, probabilistic risk assessment takes into account all disasters that can occur in the future, including very intensive losses with long return periods, and does overcomes the limitations associated with estimated derived from historical disaster loss data.

Why does it matter Probabilistic risk assessment gives an overview of estimated losses, which can provide guidance to predict and plan for future losses. This information can be used to plan and prioritize investments and strategies for managing disaster risk.

Source UNISDR (GAR) – https://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2015/en/home/

View morePreventionweb – Understanding Disaster Risk – Deterministic and probabilistic risk – https://www.preventionweb.net/risk/deterministic-probabilistic-risk

Average Annual Loss (AAL)

The Average Annual Loss is the expected loss per annum associated to the occurrence of future perils assuming a very long observation timeframe.

Why does it matterIt considers the damage caused on the exposed elements by small, moderate and extreme events and results a useful and robust metric for risk ranking and comparisons.

AAL Flood results are provisional. These results give an overview of the risk associated with river flooding. Factors other than the depth of the water also have a considerable influence on loss, which means that there is greater uncertainty compared with other hazards.

Probable Maximum Loss (PML)

The Probable Maximum Loss is a risk metric that represents the maximum loss that could be expected, on average, within a given number of years.

Why does it matter PML is widely used to establish limits related to the size of reserves that, for example, insurance companies or a government should have available to buffer losses: the higher the return period, the higher the expected loss. PML always have associated a mean return period.

Mean return period of 100, 250, 500, 1000 and 1500 years means the 5%, 2%, 1%, 0.5% and 0.3% probability respectively of exceeding those losses in 5 years.

For Detailed Report visit this link: https://www.preventionweb.net/countries/phl/data/

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Disaster Management Program

It is important that the governments provide the needed policy-level guidance and leadership in promoting child,youth and gender-sensitive disaster policies.

As the world faces an array of natural and man-made disasters the needs of vulnerable populations affected by humanitarian emergencies are evolving. World Vision is also changing. With operations in 95 countries and a global commitment to having a sustained impact in the lives of children, World Vision is reinforcing its holistic approach to disaster management.

Video Credit:Author Tanya Penny Director Humanitarian Positioning, Reputation and Communications World Vision International
Source: https://www.wvi.org/disaster-management/video/disaster-management-2020

The Philippines is very vulnerable to natural disasters because of its natural setting, as well as its socio-economic, political and environmental context. The National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Plan (NDRRMP) fulfills the requirement of RA No. 10121 of 2010, which provides the legal basis for policies, plans and programs to deal with
disasters. The NDRRMP covers four Thematic areas, namely,
(1) Disaster Prevention and Mitigation;
(2) Disaster Preparedness;
(3) Disaster Response; and
(4) Disaster Rehabilitation and Recovery
This correspond to the structure of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). By law, the Office of Civil Defense formulates and implements the NDRRMP and ensures that the physical framework, social, economic and environmental plans of communities, cities, municipalities and provinces are consistent with such plan. The NDRRMP is consistent with the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Framework (NDRRMF), which serves as “the principal guide to disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM) efforts to the country….”The Framework envisions a country of “safer, adaptive and disaster-resilient Filipino communities toward sustainable development.”It conveys a paradigm shift from reactive to proactive DRRM wherein men and women have increased their awareness and understanding of DRRM,with the end in view of increasing people’s resilience and decreasing their vulnerabilities. The NDRRMP is a road map on how DRRM shall contribute to gender-responsive and rights-based sustainable development. Read the full report at this link (http://www.ndrrmc.gov.ph/attachments/article/41/NDRRM_Plan_2011-2028.pdf)


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