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Philippines Probabilistic Risk Results Average Annual Loss by Hazard

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Philippines Probabilistic Risk Results Average Annual Loss by Hazard

UNISDR is supporting countries to develop disaster loss databases. The need for systematic data for disaster mitigation and prevention is an increasing concern of both development and response agencies. In the past, data needs were addressed on an ad hoc basis, which included collecting the information at the time of the emergency. However, there is a growing importance and understanding that data collection, analysis, and management can help both short and long-term development goals and help to identify and address disaster risks.


Probabilistic Risk

Probabilistic risk assessment uses mathematical models to combine any possible future hazard scenarios, information about the exposed assets and the vulnerability, to provide results of an estimate of probable loss levels in a region of interest. Unlike historical estimates, probabilistic risk assessment takes into account all disasters that can occur in the future, including very intensive losses with long return periods, and does overcomes the limitations associated with estimated derived from historical disaster loss data.

Why does it matter Probabilistic risk assessment gives an overview of estimated losses, which can provide guidance to predict and plan for future losses. This information can be used to plan and prioritize investments and strategies for managing disaster risk.

Source UNISDR (GAR) – https://www.preventionweb.net/english/hyogo/gar/2015/en/home/

View morePreventionweb – Understanding Disaster Risk – Deterministic and probabilistic risk – https://www.preventionweb.net/risk/deterministic-probabilistic-risk

Average Annual Loss (AAL)

The Average Annual Loss is the expected loss per annum associated to the occurrence of future perils assuming a very long observation timeframe.

Why does it matterIt considers the damage caused on the exposed elements by small, moderate and extreme events and results a useful and robust metric for risk ranking and comparisons.

AAL Flood results are provisional. These results give an overview of the risk associated with river flooding. Factors other than the depth of the water also have a considerable influence on loss, which means that there is greater uncertainty compared with other hazards.

Probable Maximum Loss (PML)

The Probable Maximum Loss is a risk metric that represents the maximum loss that could be expected, on average, within a given number of years.

Why does it matter PML is widely used to establish limits related to the size of reserves that, for example, insurance companies or a government should have available to buffer losses: the higher the return period, the higher the expected loss. PML always have associated a mean return period.

Mean return period of 100, 250, 500, 1000 and 1500 years means the 5%, 2%, 1%, 0.5% and 0.3% probability respectively of exceeding those losses in 5 years.

For Detailed Report visit this link: https://www.preventionweb.net/countries/phl/data/

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